By Jay Kirell
It is coming.
The war everyone on the far right has been screaming about.
The war over guns.
Not today. No, noooooo. We’re not close to ready for that war today.
Last week’s fatal shooting (the one in Oregon, on October 1, um…2015, depending on when you’re reading this and what shooting spurred you on to end up finding this) hasn’t moved the needle on the issue of gun control.
It’s not going to.
Neither is the next school shooting. Or military base shooting. Or house-of-worship shooting.
The House of Representatives is overwhelmingly controlled by the Republican party, which is basically the political wing of the National Rifle Association. Over the rest of the decade there’s as much a chance of removing the GOP from control of the House as there is removing the NRA from its grip on the GOP.
In other words, don’t expect a n y t h i n g to happen on the issue of gun control until 2020, at the earliest….if the stars align and Democrats suddenly gain back control of the House.
Spoiler alert – that’s probably not going to happen. And even if it did they’d have to gain back control of the Senate. And enough control to have a super majority.
In other words, if they want a compromise position on guns, they need to have enough Democrats in office where they don’t actually need to compromise. Without an Obama at the top of the ticket, that seems unlikely.
So, no, this upcoming war on guns isn’t going to kick off anytime soon. It’s a war that’s decades down the line.
But when it occurs, it’ll be swift, it’ll be stunning, and it will be glorious.
Because the end result will be the repeal of the Second Amendment.
That is the only way this fight will end because it’s the only way it can end.
When one side of an argument is unwilling to compromise, even on relatively mild points of a larger issue (like background checks) because they feel it’s an encroachment upon their fundamental rights, they’re staking their claim to the totality of an issue.
They believe they own the gun issue and won’t give an inch on it. Not in any form or fashion, no matter how many nationwide headline-grabbing events occur.
So where does this leave other side?
Impotent, as long as they believe in modest reforms and aren’t willing to press the issue too much for fear of looking like a “gun-grabber.”
Which is why I believe in 30, 40 years, the United States will have repealed the second amendment. The fight will shift. It has to.
One side doesn’t want compromise on guns. Years will pass with more and more shootings and no compromise. Decades will pass with thousands upon thousands of dead and no compromise.
Until the idea of compromise becomes quaint.
And the war begins.
And the pro-gun side loses. Because while I can’t say they’re on the wrong side of history (like civil rights) they are on the wrong side of the future.
If we as Americans want to build a better, safer future, guns have no place in that America.
Future Americans will figure it out. Some of us already have.
See you in 2045.